The striking part isn't the low share of companies reporting returns — it's that most CEOs keep raising budgets anyway. That's conviction-driven spending, and history suggests it can outlast skepticism for years: enterprises sank money into cloud and ERP long before measurable payoffs appeared. Worth noting, though, that CIO surveys systematically undercount value that arrives as avoided costs or faster cycles rather than new revenue lines. The real test comes at the next budget season: if returns stay invisible, expect the corporate mood to flip from 'spend more' to 'prove it' rather abruptly. This dataset will be quoted in every AI-bubble debate for months.